The question
Set-top box chips (systems-on-chip, or SoCs) are a concentrated market whose fortunes follow the box market, which was being reshaped by cord cutting, streaming and the move to simpler, cheaper boxes. The client needed an independent view of the market and its main players.
What we delivered
- Market background: what drives set-top box demand by platform and region, the outlook, and the pressures on revenue, and how these feed through to the value of the chips inside.
- Market structure: how concentrated the chip market is, how it has evolved over three "ages", and wider semiconductor trends including consolidation, trade sanctions and the impact of COVID-19.
- Challenges and opportunities: device substitution, spectrum moving from broadcast to broadband, hardware differentiation (for example audio and soundbars), and pay-TV's move to Android TV and RDK.
- Competitive analysis: a chip capability matrix by platform and tier, a map of which chip vendors support which conditional access systems, and profiles with SWOT analyses of five leading vendors: Broadcom, HiSilicon, MediaTek, ALi and Amlogic.
- A strategy question: the case for and against a "last man standing" strategy in the shrinking market for basic boxes.
The analysis drew on Omdia's set-top box model, with a dedicated extract of shipments and revenue by platform built for the project. See the market share service.
What I did
I co-authored the final 37-slide deliverable with Omdia's research director for the service.
What it shows
- Competitive intelligence for an investor audience: market structure, vendor capabilities and SWOTs.
- Connecting a device market to its component supply chain.
- Framing a clear strategic question and weighing the evidence on both sides.
The client is described anonymously and no confidential figures are shown.